Fundació Navegació Oceànica Barcelona

The passage through the Antilles is playing out according to the strategy the boats have taken over the past week. Leading entry Safran with Marc Guillemot and Charles Caudrelier, have been the first to enter the Caribbean Sea and as forecasted the skippers chose to pass through the islands of Marie-Galante and Dominica. They were followed by Groupe Bel with Kito De Pavant and François Gabart and it is highly likely that Mike Golding and Bubi Sansó will also move into the final phase of racing this afternoon.

It’s not yet clear, however, how fourth place Michel Desjoyeaux and Jérémie Beyou’s Foncia will go through the archipelago. It’s likely they will head considerably further south than the trio at the top of the fleet, as they are currently below 15º N and with the forecast indicating there will be some steady trades over the next 48 hours, it doesn’t look like they are likely to change their minds. It also looks like the next bunch of entries in the fleet will be of the same opinion; Veolia Environnement, Aviva and W Hotels with Alex Pella and Pepe Ribes. Options look pretty inflexible for this group until they get through the Antilles, and for the time being the skippers must concentrate on getting the best speed performance levels out of the boats as possible and deciding how to take the Antilles. The fact that the trades are forecasted to be stronger to the south is likely to mean the group will move further down the latitude scale and may negotiate the archipelago near the island of St Lucia.

Pachi Rivero and Yves Parlier’s 1876 have more problematic tactical options on their hands. The skippers are currently enjoying a fifth place in the rankings according the Great Circle calculations (the ideal route) taking into the account that they may pass the archipelago via any point east of the island of Hispaniola. However, the possibility of catching those steady trades that the other IMOCAs are enjoying are more doubtful, as they red boat has an area of light breeze ahead that may complicate matters considerably over the next 24 hours.

In any case, while the trades look steady below 20º N, once in the Caribbean Sea, matters could change completely. There are 1,000 miles to go until Puerto Limon and winds may vary radically, especially in the approach to Costa Rica, where the Pacific Ocean may make its influence felt.

The Transat Jacques Vabre is entering into its final phase, as always the most fascinating for those who enjoy a good ‘check mate’ on the racing board.